NBA playoff predictions and discussion

[hayesboy]

Celtics 4-1 Pacers
Timberwolves 4 - 3 Mavs

I think the Pacers have been fortunate to get through against two opponents with significant injury issues. Really it should be 4-0 but the Celts like to lay an egg at least once a series.
I have a feeling that the Mavs will present challenges to the Wolves defence that are not as easy for them to solve with the personel they rely on. As Jokic says - they were built to beat the Nuggets. In games where Donic rediscovers his shooting form and Irving plays up to somewhere closer to his best I think it could be very interesting! 100% if one team wins this series easily it will be the Wolves but I have a sneaky feeling that Doncic and Irving (who seems to have turned over a new leaf amazingly...for now at least!) will be relishing this one.

[robh92]

May 21, 2024 9:07:54 GMT hayesboy said:

Celtics 4-1 Pacers
Timberwolves 4 - 3 Mavs

I think the Pacers have been fortunate to get through against two opponents with significant injury issues. Really it should be 4-0 but the Celts like to lay an egg at least once a series.
I have a feeling that the Mavs will present challenges to the Wolves defence that are not as easy for them to solve with the personel they rely on. As Jokic says - they were built to beat the Nuggets. In games where Donic rediscovers his shooting form and Irving plays up to somewhere closer to his best I think it could be very interesting! 100% if one team wins this series easily it will be the Wolves but I have a sneaky feeling that Doncic and Irving (who seems to have turned over a new leaf amazingly...for now at least!) will be relishing this one.

I've felt like this about them this whole play offs. It's the only thing that makes me wonder how they'll react when they face an actual challenge in the finals. They're clearly the best team on paper, but I still feel like they lack a killer instinct.

I'm going to stick my neck out and take the Mavs in six in the west. 

[hayesboy]

May 20, 2024 15:50:09 GMT robh92 said:

I think as time goes on, the greatness of Steph and LeBron from that era really stands out.

There are loads of great players in the league now, but nobody of that calibre who can lead a team to the finals year after year. Perhaps we won't see that until Wembanyama starts to peak.

Great point.
Jokic is MVP 3/4 seasons and for me has redefined the possibilities of what teams can expect from the center position in the modern game of basketball.

By center standards he handles the ball and initiates offence a lot. Effectively a Point/Center. However I get where you are coming from because ultimately he cannot create those isolation 1v1 plays quite in the way a guard like Steph (with his range and ball handling) or an athletic wing with elite passing like Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Jordan etc.

It will be interesting to see if the Celtics can exploit this with Tatum and Brown against whoever comes out of the West!!

[SamH]

Yes, I toyed with 4-1 rather than 4-2 for Boston but I used the rationale, like you Hayesboy - that they will lose 1 game where they just stop paying attention (as Wilbon puts it!) bit I fancy they might lose a 2nd one because of what RobH says, they sometimes lack killer instinct and the Pacers have been red hot at home. I could see the Pacers winning 2 at home in this before Boston wake up and put them away. But yeah 4-1 wouldn't surprise me either or even a Celtics sweep.

As for Jokic, there was a really good piece a few games back where they showed 3 different clips of him from the same game - one doing a Kareem style sky hook; the next posting up and going glass like Tim Duncan, and then a dream shake style move like Olajuwon (which I'd noticed in the game and it really did remind me of the Dream) so he has all the moves of these past great big men, plus he can shoot from distance, pass well, defend and rebound. He is such a good all rounder. When you back to the last era of dominant big men, none of them had the complete package like this. Duncan was perhaps the closest but he didn't have long range shooting. Arvydas Sabonis was the first really skilled big man for passing the ball but he wasn't especially dominant in the post. Shaq was a free throw liability. Ewing and Robinson I would say lacked killer instinct and were a bit soft. Karl Malone was a douchebag...I mean he was a bit one dimensional and relied on Stockton getting him the ball a lot. And he wasn't a 5 anyway. Yao Ming was just too clumsy and heavy footed.

You look at the Joker and its hard to find a weakness. The only thing really is, you go back to when he was picked last for the all star game and said he wouldn't pick him either as he isn't really built for that kind of game. Maybe he lacks a bit of speed and flare at times, but to be honest when you have the skills he does there is still so much to enjoy watching, that doesn't matter. And it isn't detrimental anyway, Duncan wasn't exciting either but real fans appreciate the skill anyway.

[hayesboy]

Sabonis not dominant in the post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow...........

[SamH]

I am referring to his NBA years, not Europe - he was past his best in the NBA and averaged around 11-13 ppg and 8 rpg each season, that isn't what I'd call dominant compared to the other names I mentioned and the numbers they were doing!

[hayesboy]

Thank you for qualifying it but even in his NBA days he was still a dominant inside presence. Don’t just obsess over scoring stats.

[SamH]

Yeah he was to an extent, but I always think of him first when it comes to big men who were skilled passers (although he didn't average huge numbers of APG) so for me that's what he was best known for, as well as obviously being a strong force inside. I wouldn't rate him as high as those others going on his NBA time but I know he was one of the GOATs in Europe.

Meanwhile the Pacers blew it in game 1. Both teams blew it actually but the Pacers blew it when it mattered in the final minute, then went on to be soundly beaten in overtime. That was a huge result because if they had managed to win it, having been chasing much of the game, it could have really lit the fire under them. But now it might have done the opposite and taken the wind out of their sails. A good game to watch though, glad it was on BBC.

[hayesboy]

The Pacers for me are interlopers in these conference finals.
If Giannis was fit they are not getting out of the first round. If the Knicks were not so banged up ditto.

I can see Boston losing a game because they seem incapable of not doing so. This stems from Tatum who is a ridiculous talent that seems to lack that killer instinct and fire relative to others in the same orbit as him (i.e. All NBA players).

Talking of All NBA teams I notice 7 of the 15 either did not make the play-offs or exited in the first round? Obviously its based on the regular season but its interesting to see.......

[SamH]

So the Pacers throw another one away and this series is done. They should be 2-1 up now buy it feels like it's inexperience down the stretch in these close games that's costing them, coupled with Bostons experience. This could easily be a sweep now.

[hayesboy]

Pacers without Haliburton though are always going to struggle.

Meanwhile out West the dynamic duo that I never thought would work and looking like dark horses!
I've got to say the NBA's biggest fruit loop Kyrie Irving seems to have re-discovered his sanity just at the right time. No drama, no fuss just all of his brilliant basketball skills put on show whenever the Mavs need it (i.e. when Luka needs a rest).

Matchups are so important and when Jokic said the Wolves were built to beat them he was right...but they are not built to beat a team with 2 elite guards, with floor spacing 3&D wings and lob threat bouncy bigs.

Even so I am shocked at how the Wolves are unravelling. They've been in these games despite sub par play from Edwards and Towns.
I tought it would be a close series but again, like the East, the sweep is on. Amazing. Doncic must be infuriating to play against. No wonder people name their guinea pigs after him.

[SamH]

It was a great game winner by Doncic in game 2 and like the Celtics, it felt like experience counted in game 3, not that all of the Mavs have lots of it. If you watch the game winner in game 2 again you'll see how he shakes off DPOY Gobert to get open, it's incredible.

So we could just skip ahead with the formalities now and talk about the final. I'm excited to see how Boston plans on slowing Doncic and Irving down. Brown and Tatum matching up with them will be fun to watch. I hope Porzingis is back, and Lively doesn't miss time. Him and Gafford matching up with KP will be interesting too.

[SamH]

Was sad to hear about the passing of Bill Walton, just seen that as they paid tribute at the start of last night's game, but not finished the game yet so can't go browsing the net too much for further details as don't want to see the result! Must have been hard for Rick Carlisle as they were team mates who won a chip together in Boston.

[SamH]

OK seen it now, hate to say it but AGAIN that could have went the other way! It's not often a team gets swept and you're thinking it could be 3-1 the other way. Especially if Haliburton had played.

But, no complaints - it was the Celtics all season long expected to win the East and they did.

[hayesboy]

Yes given that Halliburton was missing I thought the Celtics made hard work of it.

They will point to Porzingis absence but he’s their 5th best starter in my opinion. Halliburton is the Indiana star player.

I cannot see the T-Wolves coming back from 3-0. I could see them making it a bit uncomfortable for the Mavs. They surely cannot keep playing so poorly and also nerves may creep in for Mavs with the TWolves having the opposite….almost a free hit now.

Lively being available is key for Dallas

[SamH]

So, can the T'wolves make this a series tonight? I think they maybe can. It's an unusual one because normally the team that's 3 zip down is playing games 3 and 4 at home, then if they can win game 4 they usually go and lose game 5 on the road. But this is the other way round and of course, game 7 would be in Minnesota too - putting quite a bit of pressure on the Mavs to win game 6 if they go to it. I know they won games 1 and 2 on the road but even so, you don't want to play a team in their house thats beaten you 3 times in a row, to win the series, do you?

I'm sure I am getting ahead of myself though! The stats were interesting they put up in game 4. Of the 154 teams that have tried and failed to win from 3-0 down, 95 lost in 4 games, and only 15 have ever got as far as forcing game 6, so essentially 10%. And only 4 have forced a game 7 but none have yet won it. I guess once you have enough teams force that deciding game, eventually one of them will win it but 4 out of 150 suggests it could be many years waiting.