NBA playoff predictions and discussion

[SamH]

Wowsers! What happened in game 6 MH? Just 70 points and a 45 point rout. It all seemed to change after the early Minnesota timeout, 9-2 down. They went on a tear after that and never looked back. At least my prediction of a 7 game series has turned out right, although I never would have predicted the results of each game to get there. Still expect Denver to win at home in game 7.

[milehigh]

It was painful!
Sometimes a team just don't have it on the night, the shooting was off, not getting rebounds, not able to make the plays they wanted etc.

Don't count Denver out, they are at their best when under pressure.

[hayesboy]

Was a shocker. Pretty much each game has been largely dominated from start to finish by the winner hasn't it?
I was confident Nuggets were going to take game 6. Now I have no idea who will win G7. Flip a coin.

[SamH]

Well overall I'm not too disappointed but I am disappointed to lose game 6 by 1 lousy point,especially from well ahead at halftime. That'll leave a bitter taste, but I do think it will help next year. Almost without fail you have to lose and experience heartache in the nba to be able to go on and win. This will be something they'll want to avoid happening again.

In the meantime the lads should reflect on the positives - youngest team to ever grab the top seed, and to win a playoff series. Coach of the year, mvp runner up, 4 guys who could potentially be all stars. I can't wait for next season now!

[SamH]

Meanwhile it's a pair of game 7s tonight. Knicks Pacers at a sensible uk time, but mile high will have to pull a late one to see what happens in Denver. I'm keeping it safe and predicting wins for the 2 home teams. Its something like 80% of home teams win game 7 historically. Indiana yet to win in the garden, but I am intrigued about Minny after that game 6 thrashing.

[hayesboy]

Sport is strange….Im still not sure how they lost that game!
2 decent sized leads, excellent games from their best players and particularly SGA who outperformed Irving and Doncic.

Washington has been their third best player and up until the last few mins he’d been awol with foul trouble.

The NBA likes to make complex rules. The nonsense over the foul at the very end is a great example. For me it’s a clear foul so they got it right in the end. Heady play by Kidd to get him to miss the final FT.

Credit to the Mavs. Somewhere in Hertfordshire Voldemort is smiling.

I cannot call the 2 G7s. Injuries make the Knicks vulnerable. The Wolves and Nuggets have both been dominant in wins. Feels like Denver will need a good start.

[milehigh]

The "middle of the night" games are painful, but it's what I have to do to watch, most of, their games.

Hopefully Nuggets win tonight, but regardless of the result, I hope they can walk off at the end knowing they gave 100%

[SamH]

Easy win for the Pacers in the end, although injuries and their hot shooting were the main reasons why. I'm pleased, as the knicks are so decimated now, they'd be no match for Boston. Hopefully Indy can at least be competitive.

[hayesboy]

I agree with that point on Knicks. They were just totally broken by the end and you have to questions Thibs rotation policy through a grinding season. Is he correct to do it so they can squeeze the most out of the squad or should be do things differently??

[tallerman]

If Celtics dont win now its time to get rid of tatum

[robh92]

May 20, 2024 5:55:11 GMT hayesboy said:

I agree with that point on Knicks. They were just totally broken by the end and you have to questions Thibs rotation policy through a grinding season. Is he correct to do it so they can squeeze the most out of the squad or should be do things differently??

Sorry but I'm sick of hearing this narrative. Minutes played has no bearing on successive impact injuries.

We've spent the last few years listening to everyone complain about load management, now people are complaining that players are playing too much? It's a nonsense.

The Knicks had absolutely rotten injury luck from January onwards and it speaks volumes of their resolve and spirit that they got as far as they did.

[hayesboy]

Well I am not complaining. Hate load management and would largely agree that professional athletes have an easy life compared to those of us grafting away in the "real world".
However of all NBA coaches Thibs in the most well known for playing shorter rotations and playing his starters very heavy minutes. In a playoffs where there seem to be a lot of injuries the Knicks seem worst impacted. Does not seem so nonsensical to suggest there MIGHT be a link between the two?

I think somewhere else in this thread I made mention of it seems surprising, given the differing approach to load management coupled with advances in sports science etc, that there are so many notable injuries in this play-offs. If you go back to the more physical 90s were players just less willing to miss critical games?

[robh92]

I understand why people add two and two together like that, but anyone who watches the Knicks regularly will know that it's not related.

Julius Randle dislocated his shoulder on a drawn charge, OG Anunoby got injured shortly after arriving and missed two months before the play offs began, Bogdanovic got hurt chasing down a 50/50 ball. The injuries meant that Hart (who should be a sub!) was playing crazy minutes at the four and Brunson had to carry the load on offense.

Funnily enough I think the Knicks playing heavy minutes down the stretch helped them outlast the Sixers in round one, where the Knicks were clearly the better conditioned team.

Injuries have caused chaos in the East this year, even the Celtics aren't completely healthy. I think the schedule needs looking at during the regular season, but at the same time, it's probably just a coincidence as the teams in the West aren't having anywhere near as many issues.

[SamH]

Meanwhile, Denver blow a 15 point halftime lead, a game 7 record for biggest blown lead. 3 losses at home. Do they need to make any changes or run it back next season? It was a good game to watch as a neutral.

[hayesboy]

Michael Porter Jnr seemed to under-perform in this series. Letting Bruce Brown go (if indeed they let him go) seemed to hurt too as he came up big for them last season.
I would never have thought the Wolves would win G7 with a sub par Edwards game. Similar to the OKC game where Kyrie definitely was not at his offensive best and to some degree Doncic.

I would not break this team up but the one player in the starting 5 who I might consider the be the most expendable would be Michael Porter. If they could get a more versatile 3 that might help? Somebody who can create more off the bounce when the offense gets sticky??

[milehigh]

1) with what he's had happen in his family the last few months, it's not surprising MPJ was below his best. You wouldn't want that set of circumstances on anyone.
2) Bruce Brown was offered c $40M by Indiana, so with that offer of generational wealth, and the limited offer Denver could make him, due the the salary cap, he did what was best for his family long term, although he would have preferred to have stayed, & may even return.
3) KCP has a "player option" worth c$25M, but may get more on the open market, so he may leave.
4) MPJ, Jokic & Murray are on Max contracts, AG is on a long contract so unlikely to move, unless a significant package in given in exchange.
5) the key arears to strengthen are back up PG, Reggie W is not up to the task, back up centre, Zeke and DJ are great characters, but neither are a 10-12 minutes per game option.
A back up forward would help too. Nuggets have decided to invest in their young players, so hopefully PWatt, Stratehr, Tyson and Picket can develop. A season of NBA summer league for all of them would help.

Last night was painful, but if you don't hit your shots bad things happen.

[SamH]

At least you have a championship though MH! I've been waiting since 1996 to see one I definitely agree the Nugs could do with upgrading their bench. I wouldn't count them out from returning to the finals next year - Minnesota and OKC should continue to improve, but a lot of factors go into determining what happens. Injuries, personal issues, sometimes just how you match up against a certain team. There are reasons Boston haven't won yet - we'll see if they can get it done this year. So as long as you're competitive and in the top 4 or 5 teams in the conference you always have a chance, but I also think the days of teams being guaranteed to get to the final year after year have gone now. We obviously had that with the Cavs and Warriors, but it seems to me that winning 2 in a row is a bigger challenge than it used to be. Lots of reasons why, but its good for us fans. It was definitely getting boring when it was Cavs-Warriors every year!

[robh92]

I think as time goes on, the greatness of Steph and LeBron from that era really stands out.

There are loads of great players in the league now, but nobody of that calibre who can lead a team to the finals year after year. Perhaps we won't see that until Wembanyama starts to peak.

[SamH]

I can't wait, the future for the western conference just looks mouth watering as OKC, SA and Minnesota keep developing, and maybe Dallas depending what they can put around Doncic once Kyrie wears out his welcome there (next 12 months if he stays true to form). Then you have Houston coming up on the fringe too and maybe Memphis.

[SamH]

So anyone got any predictions for the conference finals?

I'll go:

Celtics 4-2 Pacers
T'wolves 4-1 Mavs

No doubt that will all be wrong again of course!